It’s Hump Day

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So betting on a camel in America probably won’t help you. Maybe, betting on a horse will…

Look to Keeneland’s fifth race (April 15, 2015) to pick a winner, #1 Cavu.
This 4 year old gelding, trained by Al Stall, Jr. should show solid improvement in his second race after a year layoff, per my handicapper. In his only other 2015 race he placed 2nd.
Remember, my blog is foremost educational.  What I  have learned is that Cavu was gelded days before his most recent start.  He has only had 5 starts prior and has won 1st, 2nd, and third previously. His dam is Sharp Eyes and his sire Zensational. His sire is the only horse to ever win 3 consecutive Grade I Sprint events.

His trainer is Albert M. Stall Jr. He has won multiple stakes including the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2010 and last year the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Race in 2014. He is listed as a top 50 earning trainer of 2014.  Stall has had 22 horses run first this year thus far.

The jockey is Joe M. Johnson.  He also is a multiple stakes winner.  He has had 7 horses win 1st place in 2015.

Update: Cavu tired badly, looking like a winner at the 1/8 pole he could not keep up his pace and did not perform well in this race.

 

 

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Table Turner

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This past Halloween, we saw Lady Eli take 1st place, over Sunset Glow in the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf race.  It was a grade I stakes race at Santa Anita Park, in California, for 2 year olds.

Today (April 12, 2015) we have a rematch!  Race 5 at Keeneland in KY will feature these two fillies.  Expect to see #4 Sunset Glow turn the tables on #6 Lady Eli.  My tipster expects to see Sunset Glow make a big effort in her 3 year old debut.

The weather at Keeneland is expected to be sunny with a high of 74 degrees today.  It’s no beach, but you would love a good Kentucky sunset too.  If you can, get out and enjoy the day.

Update: Sunset Glow came in third today after leading until right before the eighth pole.  Lady Eli took the lead to win by 2 and 1/2 lengths, while Miss Temple City passed Sunset Glow in the last furlong to place second by a neck.

Keeneland will not have live racing again until Wednesday, April 15th, 2015.

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Last Chance Derby

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Thoroughbred U is 100 days old today.  I am really enjoying my subject matter and all the experiences and people this blog has lead me to.  Thank you to all of my followers, friends and family that have contributed to my success in this process.  Tonight I want to give to all of you a tip for tomorrow’s race but I want to catch up on the road to the Kentucky Derby as well.

In my earlier stories Like Superbowl for Thoroughbreds and Cabin Fever, I wrote about a few of the horses I favored and the process for qualifying for the Kentucky Derby.  Tomorrow (April 11, 2015), that process ends with two final races.  The Coolmore Lexington race will take place at Keeneland in KY as 5:18 pm EST and the Arkansas Derby will post at 7:18 pm EST in AR at Oaklawn Park.

At Keeneland, they will run the grade III stakes in race #10 worth a purse of $250,000.  The track is 1 and 1/16 miles on the dirt.  The points awarded are 10-4-2-1.  Divining Rod (26) , Comfort, Quimet, Tiznow RJ (28), Henry Jones, Fame and Power, and my scratched buddy from Thursday, Donworth, will compete.  The horses in top contention for Derby have their rank posted in parentheses by their names.

At Oaklawn they will have a grade I stakes in race #11 with a million dollar purse.  The race is 1 and 1/8 miles.  The points are 100-40-20-10.  Featured horses are The Truth or Else, Mr. Z (24), Bridget’s Big Luvv, Madefromlucky (21), Bold Conquest (23), American Pharoah (9), Far Right (19) and Win the Space.

See The Road to the Kentucky Derby for a full listing of the top contenders.  My early favorite Carpe Diem is currently third.

If you can make it to the races tomorrow (April 11, 2015) have a great time.  I understand the weather should be nice in KY.  My handicapper says for race 7 at Keeneland go with #11 Free as a Bird, she has won six in a row and I see no reason she can’t win seven.

Update: Unfortunately, Free as a Bird came in fourth for her race.  That has my tipster picking the first place winner 60 % of the time, just 5 races in on my blog.  The return is greater than the investment and it is fun.  I am looking forward to sharing the next tip. Let’s all hope we get lucky!

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More Bang for your Buck

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Just in: Stay Tuned won first place today!

Update: Same trainer, same race and number but the horse is , Stay Tuned!   For race 5, horse 6 today (4/10/15) at Keeneland choose Stay Tuned.

 I hope you all caught yesterday’s tip.  Kitten’s Queen dominated in Keeneland’s third race to win.  My handicapper actually did a fantastic job calling yesterday’s races.  Here is our next chance…

Stay Tuned has an awesome trainer.  Wayne M. Catalano, is on fire.  He wins 27% of his maiden claimers and is 6-1.

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Four for Four

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UPDATE!

Scrap my tip below.  Donworth has been scratched from Keeneland’s eighth race today.  He will be racing Saturday in The Lexington instead.

My tipster now states that the entry of Kitten’s Queen and Emotional Kitten at Keeneland in positions 1 and 1 A will be tough to beat in race 3!

Great, I love the kitten and cat named horses.

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For the fourth day, I bring you my fourth tip.  At Keeneland race track tomorrow (April 9, 2015), for day 4 of the Spring meet, my handicapper is in favor of race #8, horse # 4, Donworth.

He is a 3 year old colt that won first in his only start, at Gulfstream last month.  His jockey is Joel Rosario.

Sired by Tiznow, the only two time winner of the Breeders’ Cup classic. His dam is Temple Street by Street Cry, quite a fine racer and sire, this horse has the pedigree to win.

Hope you have fun and success at the races tomorrow!

Recap:  I hope you all made the bet because she was indeed a winner.  Kitten’s Queen came in 1st place! Her jockey was Julien Leparoux.  She lead most the race and when the pack pulled up close Leparoux sat down and guided her home.  It was such a beautiful, warm and dry day.  Check in for the next tip and more Thoroughbred stories.

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Third Time’s a Charm

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Tomorrow is the 3rd day of live racing for Keeneland’s Spring meet, and the third day I have offered up a tip.  Pictured above is Wisecracker in the paddock before winning last Saturday.  He was the play of the day I suggested in my last tip and he ran first place!  So in preparation of tomorrow’s racing, here is my best bet of the day, from my favorite tipster.  At Keeneland, on Wednesday April 8,2015, go for Rapscallion. He is the #1 horse in race 3.

Go baby, go!  I hope we all win big.  Have a great day tomorrow.

Update:  Not today, my friends.  I did spend some up close and personal time with Rapscallion in the paddock before the third race today but, he did not win this time.  I will give you an update if there is any news on his claiming, etc.  Otherwise, it was a gorgeous day, both warm and dry until the races stopped.  Here is my paddock picture of Rapscallion…(what a beauty)

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Stay tuned for tomorrow’s tip!

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Tip 2 thru the Tulips

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Fingers crossed, hoping for some prettier weather tomorrow (April 4, 2015) at Keeneland.  If you can make it, the play of the day is Race 3, horse 8, Wisecracker.  His trainer is Kiaran McLaughlin and this entry is the one to watch.  Best of luck!

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Update: I hope everyone followed this tip.  After coming in second in each of the only 2 races this horse ran previously, Wisecracker won first place on Saturday!  Keep watching this Triple Crown nominee, he is a winner!

Keep reading for more great race tips and information on all things Thoroughbred.

Happy Easter!

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Tip Snip

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My blog on Thoroughbred horse racing wouldn’t be complete if I didn’t include the occasional tip.  I have mentioned before that the experience isn’t really about winning for me but, who doesn’t want a good tip, even if it is just for bragging rights?  In addition to my educational blog, I am going to release occasional Tip Snips, just a little gift to my followers.  My handicapping skills are rough at best but, I know some people with talent.  The same friend, that I follow personally on most occasions, has suggested that on opening day of Keeneland’s Spring Meet… 4/3/15…you may want to consider…wait for it…the play of the day…Race #7 horse #4 Wild and Unbridled!  Now good luck to us all!

If gambling is a problem for you, please, don’t do it.  For help call 1-800-522-4700

UPDATE: Due to the bad weather today Keeneland closed moments before race 7 today.  So sorry, you won’t be able to test my tip this time.  No worries, more tips to come.  Thank you all!  Here is a picture of today’s muddy track and wicked sky minus the heavy rain, lightening, and tornado watch.  Still a fun day.

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Form Freebie Friday

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Waking to the coldest morning in 2 decades here in Lexington,KY, it was welcome news to receive a gift.  The Daily Racing Form has decided to go digital for the 1st time in their 120 year history and today’s download is FREE! See the link below.

www.drf.com/digital-paper

The Form or the DRF was created in November of 1894 by the sports editor for the Chicago Tribune, Frank Brunell.  He had been writing about trotters for some time when he decided that statistical information improved his betting on the Thoroughbreds.  He decided to make a 4 page daily paper to include news stories and gossip about horse racing as well as charts.  He got off to a very rough start and he even quit printing for 4 months.  In March of 1896 he got back on track and by 1922 he was a millionaire for his publications in a time when millionaires were uncommon.  His creation is now “America’s Turf Authority since 1894”.

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  The DRF now produces over 2 thousand pages of Thoroughbred related content each day, except Christmas.  It is the only daily newspaper dedicated to a single sport.  The DRF website receives more traffic for horse racing news than any other site.  The success of the publication is the inclusion of information on past performances, which were reported from 1905 onward along with news and charts.  The style of the charts hasn’t changed much.  The publication is used by fans, trainers, owners, jockeys, handicappers, and betters nationwide.  The publication helps all of these people get the latest news on entries, horses , workout statistics, tracks and results.  Equibase, a horse racing database born of The Jockey Club and The Thoroughbred Racing Association of North America in 1990, joined forces with DRF in 1998.  Currently it is published out of New York City.

In 2000 DRF gave its nearly complete archive of over 3,400 volumes to Keeneland library dating back to 1896.  In 2010 DRF gave that same library more issues now totaling at over 5,400 volumes.  In 2007 the University of Kentucky coupled with Keeneland to preserve this one-of-a-kind collection.  Over 11 million pages of the DRF are stored in a climate controlled vault beneath this library.  These antique pages of The Form are now in an on-line database.  Watch the UK/Keeneland collaboration here.

If you need help with handicapping or wagering, get yourself a copy of the latest Daily Racing Form.  I am inspired by Brunell.  If I keep on blogging I might just become an authority!

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Wondering about Wagering

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Next weekend is Superbowl XLIX. I watch the game for the commercials and a good time with my friends, but it is generally a day I can make a little dough too. Sporting events lead to some fun betting for sure. Sometimes, I like to gamble at the races.

I absolutely love to go to the track for live racing. I can not get enough of the people, the horses, and the food. I like to check out everyone’s fashion, meet new folks, catch up with old friends. The horses are simply amazing to take in, I am in awe with their strength and beauty. They are true athletes. The edibles are delicious and irresistible. Then, there is the gift shop. Oh my, I want just about everything in there. One way to limit my spending, at the track stores, is to try to win the money I use there. It is pretty cool to fund a new piece of equestrian jewelry with the reward of placing the right bet. How does one make a good bet? Well, there is no easy answer for that, bummer.  The good news is you do not have to spend a lot or be an expert to take a chance.  There are many strategies and superstitions to choosing the winner.

First off, pick a track.  In the United States there are Thoroughbred racetracks in 29 states.  In Kentucky alone we have 5 tracks.  It seems no two organizations agree on the number of tracks currently being utilized.  The National Thoroughbred Racing Association reports 55.  I enjoy live meets best but off-site betting is hugely popular as well.  You can go to the track or drive-thru site or casino, use your smart phone or tablet and other computer devices, befriend a bookie, get an account with Television Games Network or a similar site, or all of the above to get your wagers in.

Next, pick the race number. Simply put, you are just choosing the particular race you wish to wager on. Superstition plays heavily here.  You may have a tip to bet $5 on the #5 horse in the 5th race., 5 on the 5 in the 5, etc.  Other factors that need looking at are:  the purse for that race, the length of the race, how many horses are running that race, is it the feature race, does that race have a special wager type, what surface are the horses running on, what is the condition of the track, etc.

Then choose how much to spend and the type of bet.   I am a cheap bettor.  Most of my bets are $6 or less.  Because, too often I go for a horse with good odds I don’t get a lot of return on my money but I don’t lose much either.  I am working on becoming a smarter bettor.  I still want to minimize the cost of my bet but I need to work on maximizing my potential payoff.  This is where you need to decide if you expect the horse to win (be the 1st to finish), place (the 1st or 2nd horse to cross the finish line) or show (the first thru third horse to finish).  You can also choose “across the board” which will allow you to collect if your horse shows at the rate for which it finished.  Getting fancier, you can choose to exacta which is to pick the 1st and 2nd winner of any race.  Choosing trifecta will let you choose the first 3 horses in correct order.  If you pick the 1st four, in the right order, it is a superfecta.  Any of these options from exacta to superfecta can be boxed because that allows you to pick the correct horses but not the correct order.  There are more options like the daily double, pick three, pick four, or pick 5 that allow you to choose the winners of consecutive races.  Occasionally, there are special options too like a super high five (and a box option) that will let you pick the first five horses to finish in one particular race.  Wheels and keys are options too.  Wheels let you pick more horses.  Keys let you pick more orders.  Watch the math here, you might start with a inexpensive minimum but the number of horses and different winning combinations actually cause the bet to be multiplied to a higher cost.   Be sure to check the program for each venues options.

Finally, pick the number of the horse.  Are you picking because you like the name, number, the saddle cloth color assigned to the number, the horse, the jockey, the trainer, the breeder, the location the horse was bred? Arghhhh, so many choices!  Do you like the name?  Does the name give you a gut feeling of being lucky or speaking to you?  Numbers and colors may be a feeling of luck.  However, it also determines what position the horse gets at the gate.  Considering the horse, color can be a big factor.  You will often hear people pulling for a grey.  You may be interested in looking at the horses behavior in the paddock or before it reaches the gate. Feeling frisky?  Pedigree is an important consideration.  Does the horse come from a long line of winners?  What medications does the horse take and how or why should you care about that?  How much weight is the horse carrying?  What is the horse’s age and gender?  What are all of the former lifetime records?  How about the workout record? What is the jockey’s name and what do we know about him or her?  What is their weight and what equipment are they carrying? Who trained the horse and do we know anything about their winning history and other biographical information?  What about the breeder, and where did the breeding take place?  All of these considerations and more come into play.  This is why it is important to learn how to read the program.  A good program will have a breakdown of a sample entry with explanations of the information and abbreviations used.  However, don’t blow off tips and gut feelings.  All the handicapping skills you develop still don’t lead to fail proof betting.  Long shots can lead to great payouts.

Now, go have some fun!  Remember to gamble responsibly if you choose to gamble at all. If it seems like a problem it probably is. Call 1-800-522-4700 for the National Gamblers Helpline if needed.  Have a blast at the gift shop rewarding yourself for your skills and/or luck.  Or, go straight to the gift shop and get a return on your money dollar per dollar.  If you avoid both, you can go have a great time from free to a minimal entry fee. Love the races. Good luck to you all!

 

 

 

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