Kentucky Derby Is Coming

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Beneath is a listing of Program number, (post position as affected by scratches), horse/jockey/trainer/owner/breeder/and updated odds:

1. War Of Will/Tyler Gaffalione/Mark E. Casse/Gary Barber/Flaxmen Holdings Limited/18-1
2. Tax/Junior Alvarado/Danny Gargan/R.A. Hill Stable, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Lynch, Hughes and Corms Racing Stable/Claiborne Farm and Adele B. Dilschneider/39-1
3. By My Standards/Gabriel Saez/W. Bret Calhoun/Allied Racing Stable, LLC./Don Ladd/14-1
4. Gray Magician/Drayden Van Dyke/Peter Miller/Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners/29-1
5. Improbable/Irad Ortiz, Jr./Bob Baffert/WinStar Farm, LLC., China Horse Club International, LTD. and Starlight Racing/St. George Farm, LLC. and G. Watts Humphrey Jr./5-1
6. Vekoma/Javier Castellano/George Weaver/R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stable, LLC./Alpha Delta Stables, LLC./22-1
7. Maximum Security/Luis Saez/Jason Servis/Gary and Mary West/Gary and May West Stables, Inc./5-1
8. Tacitus/Jose L. Ortiz/William I. Mott/Juddmonte Farms.Inc./Juddmonte Farms, Inc./5-1
9. Plus Que Parfait/Ricardo Santana Jr./Brenden P. Walsh/Imperial Racing LLC./Calloway Stables,LLC./50-1
10. Cutting Humor/Corey J. Lanerie Mike E. Smith/Todd A. Pletcher/Starlight Racing/Del Hancock and Bernie Sams/22-1
11. Haikal/Rajiv Maragh/Kiaran P. McLaughlin/Shadwell Stable/Shadwell Farm, LLC./30-1 Scratched
12. Omaha Beach/Mike E. Smith/Richard E. Mandella/Fox Hill Farms, LLC./4-1 Scratched
13. (11) Code Of Honor/John R. Velazquez/Claude R. McGaughey III/W.S. Farish/W.S. Farish/13-1
14. (12) Win Win Win/Julien Pimentel/Michael J. Trombetta/Live Oak Plantation/Live Oak Stud/14-1
15. (13) Master Fencer/Julien R. Leparoux/Koichi Tsunoda/Katsimi Yoshizawa/Katsumi Yoshizawa/50-1
16. (14) Game Winner/Joel Rosario/Bob Baffert/Gary and Mary West/Summer Wind Equine/6-1
17. (15) Roadster/Florent Geroux/Bob Baffert/Speedway Stables, LLC./Stone Farm/10-1
18. (16) Long Range Toddy/Jon Kenton Court/Steven M. Asmussen/Willis Horton Racing, LLC./Willis Horton Racing, LLC./44-1
19. (17) Spinoff/Manuel Franco/Todd A. Pletcher/Wertheimer and Frere/Wertheimer and Frere/54-1
20. (18) Country House/Flavien Pratt/William I. Mott/Mrs. J.V. Shields, Jr., Mrs. J.V. McFadden, E.J.M Jr., and LNJ Foxwoods/J.V. Shields, Jr./72-1
21. (19) Bodexpress/Chris Landeros/Gustavo Delgado/Top Racing, LLC., Global Thoroughbred and GDS Racing Stable/Matha Jane Mulholland/99-1

War of Will (KY) – (8:3-1-1) War Front – Visions Of Clarity : This colt won his 60 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby with his first place finishes in both the LeComte Stakes (G3) and the Risen Star (G2). His top Equibase speed figure was 107, in the LeComte. He is a Keeneland Grad, presented at auction as a yearling there but did not bring reserve price. Also, he is Keeneland raced, finishing 4th in the Dixiana Bourbon Stakes. 6 of his starts were in graded stakes. War Of Will raced 5 times to break his maiden. He started as a turf horse and was a winner as soon as he switched to dirt, at Churchill Downs. He finished a respectable 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Churchill prior. He is well traveled at 4 tracks, 3 tracks in 2 United States and 1 in Canada as well. War of Will’s (J)ockey, (T)rainer and (O)wner connections have no KY Derby wins as of yet. One personal point, I have hugged up on War Front at Claiborne Farm and he is just a sweetheart of a stud!

Tax (KY) – (5:2-2-1) Arch –Toll : This gelding picked up 52 points in his KY Derby prep races. He gathered his points over 3 qualifying races where he was 3rd in the Remsen Stakes, 1st in the the Withers Stakes and 2nd in the Wood Memorial. His first start was at Churchill Downs, then he broke his maiden at Keeneland. Since then, he has raced all three of his graded stakes at Aqueduct where his E speed figures have continued to improve, 105 in his last start. Post 2 has led to 7 KY Derby wins including 1 Triple Crown winner. Tax’s team (J:T:O) have no KY Derby wins to share. Arch, another Claiborne Farm horse, passed away at age 21 after siring many graded stakes winners. It makes me happy to see this son racing in the KY Derby.

By My Standards (KY) – (5:2-2-1) Goldencents – A Jealous Woman : This colt began his career at Churchill Downs. His next 3 races were at Fairgrounds where he eventually broke his maiden in his 4th start. By My Standards found success, there in LA, in his first and only graded stakes, the Louisiana Derby. He won and obtained 100 KY Derby points. While his E Speed figure has shown improvement in every race, his last start was measured at 96. His J:T:O are ready for their first KY Derby win too. I have several Western KY based friends pulling for this horse. His owner, Thomas, is a big deal at Ellis Park and he is enjoying his chance on the championship level.

Gray Magician (KY) – (8:1-3-2) Graydar –Burg Berg – As the name suggests, this colt is gray. Though he is KY bred he has not raced in these parts before. He had 6 starts in California, one in Maryland and then… Dubai! He earned 41 KY Derby points for 2 of his races, the Sham Stakes with a 4th place finish and the UAE Derby placing 2nd. It took 4 starts to break his maiden, his highest E speed figure was 98, Meydan does not figure into Equibase ratings. Gray Magician is the 4th KY Derby contender for his owners, Eclipse Thoroughbreds, though his J:T:O have not won this race yet. My favorite color on a thoroughbred is gray. I adore his sire, Graydar, who shares a barn with California Chrome. I have had several opportunities to visit with Graydar as do the masses that flock to Taylor Made. He really loves the attention.

Improbable (KY) – (5:3-2-0) City Zip – Rare Event – This colt got off to a great beginning. He is a 2 time Keeneland Sales grad. He broke his maiden in California in his very first start. He shipped all the way to Churchill Downs and won again, in a Black Type Stakes. Then he was back to CA and he swept the Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity (G1) ! Though both of his 2019 debuts were graded stakes he finished 2nd in each. He received KY Derby points for each of his last 3 starts, the Los Alamitos, the Rebel Stakes (G2) and the Arkansas Derby (G1) to total 65 points. His best E speed figure was 109. He is one of 3 Baffert trained horses in this KY Derby. Baffert has won the past 2 Triple Crown series and 5 KY Derbys. Improbable’s owners won the KY Derby last year with our 13th Triple Crown winner, Justify. Win Star won with Super Saver as well. Meanwhile, Ortiz, Jr. has not won the KY Derby before. I am a very big Ortiz brothers fan and I’d love to see either of them win this year.

Vekoma (KY)- (4:3-0-1) – Candy Ride – Mona De Momma – This is a Keeneland Grad and Keenland winning colt! He won from his first break, twice at 2 tracks in New York, then experienced his only loss, but still in the money race, in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) in FL and finished with a KY win in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2). He achieved his KY Derby points in those last 2 races to score 110 (2nd on the KY Derby leaderboard). His best E speed figure is 110. His J:T:O can’t boast any KY Derby wins yet. However, owner, Weaver has contended the KY Derby before, once as a trainer when he didn’t win and twice as an apprentice to D. Wayne Lukas where he helped back to back KY Derby winners. Lukas has been my favorite trainer for many years. I like that he developed Pletcher, Weaver and so many others.

Maximum Security (KY) – (4-4-0-0) – New Year’s Day – Lil Indy – This undefeated colt is hot, hot, hot (maybe I should say hot again for all 4 consecutive wins?)! All of his career starts where at Gulfstream and only the last race was a graded stakes but in was the Florida Derby that awarded 100 KY Derby points. I think the big talk on this contender is for a different speed figure than the E speeds that I’ve included throughout, the Beyer Speed Figure. The Beyer system gives Maximum Security the only 2 scores, among these KY Derby contenders, over 100 . His E speeds are 109 and 102 for the last 2 races. For my followers, you know that I do not bet often or give much credit for any system of speed figures. However, because it is important to the sport, I am working to better understand them and their differences. It does matter that with a Beyer of 101, Maximum Security won the FL Derby by over 18 lengths! His J:T:O have not won this race but trainer, Servis’ brother did with Smarty Jones!

Tacitus (KY) – (4:3-0-0) – Tapit – Close Hatches – This is our second gray colt in the big race! He broke his maiden in his 2nd New York start and then went on to win both the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in FL and the Wood Memorial (G2) ,in NY again, to earn 150 KY Derby points (1st on the KY Derby leaderboard). With improving E speed figures, he last earned 106. As amazing of a stallion as Tapit is, he has never sired a KY Derby winner and the J:T:O of Tacitus have yet to win as well. I love Tapit, I love grays and I am enthusiastic for the Ortiz brothers.

Plus Que Parfait (KY) – (7-2-1-2) – Point Of Entry – Belvedera – This ridgling is a Keeneland Sales grad and a Keeneland race winner. He broke his maiden at Keeneland at his 3rd KY track and 3rd start, Ellis Park, Churchill Downs then Keeneland. He then went back to Churchill to start collecting KY Derby points. He earned the points in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, the LeComte Stakes, the Risen Star and the UAE Derby. With 104 points he hit 3rd on the KY Derby leaderboard. His best E speed is 96. His J:T:O have no prior KY Derby wins. I am impressed that Plus Que Parfait was the first U.S. based horse to win the UAE Derby.

Cutting Humor (KY) – (6:2-2-1) – First Samurai – Pun – This is a colt that is both a Keeneland Sales grad and finished in the money while racing at Keeneland. Breaking his maiden in his 3rd start he earned his KY Derby points in his 6th and last start. In his second graded stakes attempt to get points, he finished first in the Sunland Park Derby. He was awarded with 50 points. He has twice earned 103 as an E Speed figure. Cutting Humor’s trainer, Pletcher, has twice won the KY Derby. His jockey, Lanerie, is frequently the top performer at Churchill, though he has yet to win the KY Derby. His new jockey, Mike E. Smith, has won the KY Derby twice, just last year he won with Justify.

Haikal (KY)- (5:3-1-1)- Daaher–Sablah – This colt was bred in KY but developed in Camden,SC and raced solely at Aqueduct, in New York. In his second start he broke his maiden. He went on to win a Black Type Stakes and then began to pick up KY Derby points, first with a win in the Gotham (G2) then a third place finish in the Wood (G2). Together, he collected 70 points. His best E speed is 104. His J:T:O have all entered the KY Derby on several occasions but none have won this elusive race yet. Scratched

Code Of Honor (KY) – (5-2-1-1) – Noble Mission – Reunited – He is a Keeneland Sales grad, though he did not meet reserve, which seems to be looking great for Farish that kept his home-bred and raced him himself. Code Of Honor broke his maiden at notorious Saratoga. He stayed in NY, Belmont Park, to collect his first KY Derby points in the Champagne Stakes (G1). In all he got points in 3 KY Derby preps to total 74 points. His last start was a third place finish in the FL Derby (G1). One race prior he finished first in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and got his best E speed at 111. Velazquez has been the rider for 2 KY Derby winners. McGaughey trained KY Derby winner Orb.

Win Win Win (FL)- (6:3-2-1) – Hat Trick – Miss Smarty Pants – This colt started his career in Maryland at Laurel Park. He won his first 2 races there and then finished second before shipping back to the state of his breeding, Florida. He won a Black Type Stakes there before entering and earning points for his 3rd place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Finally, he made it to my hometrack, Keeneland, where he gathered more points by improving to a 2nd place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2). Altogether, he earned 50 points and an E speed of 113 was his best. A 2019 win in this race would be the first for his J:T:O. His recent workouts at Churchill have earned him plenty of positive attention.

Master Fencer (JPN) – (6:2-2-0) – Just A Way – Sexy Zamurai – This colt is our first Japanese based colt to race in the KY Derby. In 2017 Churchill Downs established a special Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby. Master Fencer qualified and accepted the invitation this year. He earned 19 points in the Hyacinth Stakes in Tokyo, one of 4 qualifying races. He finished 4th in that race. He broke his maiden in his third start and won his 4th race as well. It is very hard to compare him as he has not raced in the U.S and has no E Speed figures. Master Fencer’s J:T:O have no KY Derby wins prior.

Game Winner (KY) – (6-4-2-0) – Candy Ride – Indyan Giving – Another Keeneland Sales Grad this is my chosen colt in the race. I liked it when he drew post 16 as that is a strong post (5 winners historically) but I’m nervous now that he has been moved to 15 since Omaha Beach’s scratch. Only 3 winners have raced from post 15. Now Roadster gets to move from post 17, that never won, to my preferred 16. Several other posts have done better, especially 10 winners from post 5, but given the contenders I had decided Game Winner would win from 16. Now, Game Winner has lost a big talent to compete with but changed his post, hmm… Anyways, Game Winner looked like the winner for me all the while. He started at Del Mar and won his first race. He immediately entered and won three Grade 1 races consecutively, the Del Mar Futurity, the American Pharoah and the BC Juvenile. Since then, he has finished second in each the Rebel and Santa Anita Stakes, earning 85 points. His top E speed is 111. With KY Derby winning jockey, Rosario and multiple time winning trainer, Baffert, on his team, I think he will win.

Roadster (KY) – (4:3-0-1) – Quality Road – Ghost Dancing – This gray colt looks to be a very strong contender. This Keeneland Sales grad headed out west to do all of his racing. He won his first start, as well as his final 2 races. He was 3rd in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and 1st in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He won KY Derby points in each for a total of 100 points. His highest E speed is 106. Once again, he is trained by a leading KY Derby trainer, Baffert. Another win for Baffert will tie him for most KY Derby wins. Geroux has not won the KY Derby but he is fresh off the Keeneland Spring Meet where he was the number one jockey.

Long Range Toddy (KY) – (8:4-1-1) – Take Charge Indy – Pleasant Song – This colt has raced 4 times in Oklahoma and 4 times in Arkansas. After breaking his maiden in his 2nd start he won 2 listed races and was 2nd in the next listed race. He then raced in the Graded KY Derby preps finishing third, first and sixth. For his accomplishments he earned 53.5 points. His last 3 races respectively where the Southwest (G3), the Rebel (G2) and the Arkansas Derby (G1). His J:T:O bring no prior KY Derby wins to discuss.

Spinoff(KY) – (4:2-1-1) – Hard Spun – Zaftig – This is yet another colt that broke his maiden at first asking. He covered 4 tracks in his 4 race career in 3 different states. He earned all of his KY Derby points (40 total) winning the Louisiana Derby (G2). Spinoff’s greatest E speed was 101. This is KY Derby winning Pletcher’s second 2019 entry in this race.

Country House (KY)- (6:1-2-1) – Lookin At Lucky – Quake Lake – This well traveled colt broke his maiden at his third track in 3 starts. He went on to collect KY Derby point in Graded stakes in 3 races at 2 more tracks. He was 2nd in the Risen Star (G2), 4th in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and 3rd in the Arkansas Derby (G1). He gathered 50 points and his best E speed is 99. Country Horse’s J:T:O have not won the KY Derby before. He is known to start slow but finish fast!

Bodexpress(KY) – (5:0:3:0) – Bodemeister – Pied A Terre – The Keeneland Sales grad twice didn’t sell at auction. He has yet to win his maiden. However, he is far from finished. He just got a late entry to race in the KY Derby. All of his starts have been at Gulfstream but he finished second in the FL Derby, earned 40 KY Derby points and an E speed of 103 one race prior. Bodexpress’ J:T:O connections do not have KY Derby wins. He may surprise again as he did in the FL derby?

Best wishes to all in a fun and safe 145th Kentucky Derby! Please, take time to enjoy the $3 million dollar Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve on 5/4. It is a Grade 1 stakes on the dirt of 1 and 1/4 miles for 3 year-old thoroughbreds. The race posts at 6:50 P.M. ET. It is the 12th race on a card of 14. Gates at Churchill Downs open at 8 A.M ET. NBCSN will begin live coverage at 12 noon and continue until 2:30 P.M. when NBC begins their broadcast from 2:30 P.M until 7:30 P.M. (all times are ET).

I will also be watching the $ 1.25 million dollar Longines Kentucky Oaks, the day prior, 5/3. Once again, Churchill’s gates open at 8 A.M. ET. The race will post at 6:12 P.M as the 11th in a card of 13. NBCSN will televise the races from noon until 6:30 P.M. ET. I hope to share, soon, some of the many photos I got of the fillies breezing as well.

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